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The Art and Science of Prediction

J. Michael Tracy via CC, http://bit.ly/1MBA7Q8

Forecasting is a part of everyday life. We’re always making decisions based on some expectation of future outcomes. But sad to say, most of us are pretty bad at it. Psychologist Philip Tetlock has devoted his career to changing that. He wants to know what makes some people incredibly good at making predictions—he calls them superforecasters—and then he wants to teach that talent to others. Tetlock joins us Thursday to explore how we can all be better decision makers and thus better thinkers.

Philip Tetlock is the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania and holds appointments in the psychology and political science departments and the Wharton School of Business. He’s the author of Expert Political Judgment. His new book is called Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction [Amazon|Indiebound].

Doug Fabrizio has been reporting for KUER News since 1987, and became News Director in 1993. In 2001, he became host and executive producer of KUER's RadioWest, a one hour conversation/call-in show on KUER 90.1 in Salt Lake City. He has gained a reputation for his thoughtful style. He has interviewed everyone from Isabel Allende to the Dalai Lama, and from Madeleine Albright to Desmond Tutu. His interview skills landed him a spot as a guest host of the national NPR program, "Talk of the Nation." He has won numerous awards for his reporting and for his work with RadioWest and KUED's Utah NOW from such organizations as the Society of Professional Journalists, the Utah Broadcasters Association, the Public Radio News Directors Association and the Academy of Television Arts and Sciences.